Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/8/23

Dan Szymborski: It’s time. A time. For chats.

Dan Szymborski: Or at the least as soon as!

B’ryce Szymbobski: EllyD… That’s all.

Dan Szymborski: I bought a DM from somebody actually irritated I referred to him as Ellraiser

Bert: Hey Dan! The Playing cards, and others, want to present Jordan Walker extra time, proper? Particularly with them being within the cellar.

Dan Szymborski: It was at all times iffy if this was the 12 months he was going to contribute, he has enormous upside, however the short-term was very uncertian

Dan Szymborski: Because the Cardinals have to seize lightning in a bottle to erase the deficit, they must be going for riskier upside gamers than they’re usually inclined to

Ted: What are your ideas on Bobby Witt Jr and his future?  Clearly, nonetheless plenty of time to be come the star individuals thought he could be, however the begin to his profession has been underwhelming.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not super-worried for just a few causes. One, he’s simply turning 23 quickly. His protection has improved and his peripheral offensive stats counsel he should be hitting extra like he was final 12 months than this 12 months

Dan Szymborski: Now, his probabilities of being a serious famous person have most likely declined, I nonetheless assume he’s a superb participant and may very well be an excellent one

Eh?: Dan, are you able to simulate a photograph of a dugout-clearing brawl however with everybody working onto the sector with torches and pitchforks?

Dan Szymborski: We’ll see!

Dipoto: Do you imagine mariners as at the moment constructed can be part of the WC race assuming an inexpensive quantity of their gamers begin performing near projected output

Dan Szymborski: I believe they will and can seemingly be within the WC race.

Dan Szymborski: Not that they will’t enhance

Dan Szymborski: I believe they actually must be out there for a DH sort

Dan Szymborski: And Pollock’s stuff most likely must be in a cardboard field on the curb

Dan Szymborski: The rotation has really moved *up* in our rankings from the beginning of the 12 months!

Meow: Identify the cutest factor your cats do

Dan Szymborski: In all probability the presents they offer me. The catlets are combating over a toy golf bag for a pair months now.

Dan Szymborski: Justinian brings it to me and Constantine will come and take it away from me

Dan Szymborski: And Cassiopeia will deliver me her hedgehog when she’s hungry

Dan Szymborski:

Danny Boy: How vindicated do you’re feeling with the diamondbacks scorching begin? ZIPS has been on this beat for a very long time. Is anybody extra set for regression than perdomo?

Dan Szymborski: I really feel fairly good as that was the one over/beneath I wager this 12 months!

Dan Szymborski: I used to be undoubtedly speaking so much about them this offseason

Dan Szymborski: and the factor is, they haven’t even gotten notably lucky with their younger pitching

Visitor: how usually are the, I suppose “priors” up to date for the ROS projections on the positioning (or at the least ZiPS)

Dan Szymborski: RoS projections are recalculated each morning. I’m undecided what time

Dan Szymborski: OH y eah, Perdomo’s going to come back down a bit

Dan Szymborski: However Gurriel most likely will too after all

Dan Szymborski: For a workforce with such a superb document, Arizona’s had a shocking quantity of issues go unsuitable

Dan Szymborski: Actually, it’s simply that their good gamers have been REALLY good

Visitor: What sort of strikes ought to the Giants make? A bit of little bit of each promoting and shopping for?

Dan Szymborski: It’s actually arduous to say as a result of proper now, there are *so* many extra consumers than sellers

Dan Szymborski: I imply, you recognize the place the Giants are weak, however it’s arduous to essentially join the traces till you see extra groups fall into promote mode

Freddy Sez: Stroll me off the Choose ledge. Something there presumably with Jake Bauers? Doesn’t it appear slightly odd they opted for Mckinney over Florial? Or do they only not wish to topic Florial to waivers, ~hoping~ that is extra a 2 week factor than 4?

Dan Szymborski: I’d have referred to as up Florial truthfully

Dan Szymborski: My tea-reading suggests they wish to see extra plate self-discipline enchancment from him although

Dan Szymborski: However given how properly he’s hit, it’s a must to anticipate him to be aggressive

Dan Szymborski: I’ve Bauers-skeptical

Dan Szymborski: Although it’s good that he bought the 99 turbo increase in MLB the Present!

Man Who Asks The A number of Alternative Query: How do you pronounce the phrase “Pecan”?

a) PEE-can
b) pe-CAN
c) PEE-con
d) pe-CON

Dan Szymborski: None of those

Dan Szymborski: I say puh-CON

Appa Yip Yip: Are you able to repair Alek Manoah?

Dan Szymborski: Me personally? No

Dan Szymborski: I prefer to assume I’m an excellent analyst, however I’m not a pitching coach

Dan Szymborski: If he desires assist taking part in Hearthstone or one thing I may assist him

B’ryce Szymbobski: What’s up with Sandy Alcantra? Is he gonna bounce again to type?

Dan Szymborski: He’ll be high quality, however 2022 was not his baseline, which I maintain attempting to inform individuals!

Dan Szymborski: I imply, his FIP is round the place it usually is

Dan Szymborski: Right here’s what I wrote about him in March

Dan Szymborski: Alcantara remains to be more likely to be one of many higher pitchers within the league, and ZiPS actually likes him, putting him among the many leaders in WAR. However ZiPS is explicitly not attempting to have in mind rule adjustments, and I believe Alcantara is among the pitchers with essentially the most important possibilities to be affected by them. That’s a standard theme amongst a number of of my bust picks this 12 months, just because this 12 months, it’s one thing that causes further uncertainty.
On this case, Alcantara, by far, had extra groundballs hit into shifts than any pitcher in baseball in 2022, with 166; solely seven different pitchers had been above 100. I nonetheless assume he’ll be a extremely good pitcher, however I anticipate his platoon splits will rise farther than ZiPS does, and earlier than remaining assured he’s in ultra-elite territory, I wish to ensure that the changeups that lefties going through Alcantara drive into the bottom aren’t sneaking via at excessive charges.

Dan Szymborski: (within the pitcher busts piece)

Jeff: How significantly better of a prospect is Elly than Oneil Cruz was when he was initially referred to as up?

Dan Szymborski: I’d say *barely* higher?

Dan Szymborski: They’re each wonderful prospects at callup

That Resort Room in Skydome Sure That One: Which AL East workforce is constructed finest for the playoffs (as at the moment constructed)?

Dan Szymborski: Relative to their document, most likely the Jays

Dan Szymborski: their expertise is sort of concentrated of their frontline gamers

Dan Szymborski: The Rays have the wonderful depth, the Yankees have all kinds of damage questions, the Orioles would nonetheless seemingly go into most playoff video games with the weaker beginning pitcher

JC: How does Kershaw get that a lot break on his curve with low spin?

Dan Szymborski: Ah, you most likely need extra of a mechanics specialist for this!

Dan Szymborski: For his 12-6, I’m positive his arm slot and launch level have so much to do with it

Dan Szymborski: I’m undecided if he’s nonetheless doing it this manner, however he at the least used to make use of his center finger on the *rim* of the seam fairly than on the seam squarely

James: So the Astros rotation at the moment feautres JP France, Brandon Bielak and Ronel Blanco they usually nonetheless lead the league in ERA. What’s their secret?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t anticipate these guys to proceed beating their peripherals by a lot

Domingo: First it was “on a heater”. Now it’s “celly”. The individuals DEMAND higher.

That Resort Room in Skydome Sure That One: Which left for lifeless gamers do you (and ZiPS) assume nonetheless has plenty of life in them?

Dan Szymborski: I nonetheless assume there’s an opportunity Abreu turns it round!

Previous for my Age: Jack Suwinski is on a 500-AB tempo for 34HR/18SB. Is he price rostering in a H2H league or are the low avg, o-fers, and days off an excessive amount of of a headache? Do you see him enhancing to the purpose of being a must-roster participant or will the Pirates transfer on from him pretty quickly?

Dan Szymborski: I believe he’ll fall off *that* tempo a bit

Dan Szymborski: However the Pirates aren’t more likely to transfer on

Dan Szymborski: I believe in most leagues, he’s a helpful second-tier expertise

Cito’s mustache: Actually benefit from the chats.  Would you fairly wager on manufacturing from Correa, Perdomo, or Rosario ROS?

Dan Szymborski: Nonetheless Correa

Sharp: Marcell Ozuna can hit? Surprising {that a} participant with hundreds of plate appearances logged of fine efficiency would the entire sudden be a superb hitter /s

Dan Szymborski: In equity, he was fairly terrible the final two years

Sandwich Fanatic: Why are projections seemingly a lot increased on Rowdy Tellez than he’s proven? He appears completely replaceable this 12 months

Dan Szymborski: Hardly THAT a lot increased.

Dan Szymborski: 105 wRC+ vs. the 123 depth chart projection firstly of the 12 months is an underperformance, however hardly a surprising one

Dan Szymborski: It’s not Bellinger a pair years in the past!

Dan Szymborski: and the depth chart’s right down to solely 9 factors of wRC+ over season thus far

Dan Szymborski: A 105 wRC+ was his thirtieth percentile projection in ZiPS firstly of the season

Sandwich Fanatic: Is Trea Turner again or was that simply the Tigers bump?

Dan Szymborski: Given his historical past and age, I believe he’ll be high quality

Greg from Cincy: Think about if the Reds would reconfig GABP to make the Outfield Coors sized and transfer Elly to CF…
I’d like to see him protecting large quantities of floor and firing lasers to nab fools!

To my ?…
What’s an acceptable pattern to acknowledge reral change when loking at an in-season adjustment, such because the elevated stroll charges for EDLC and CES the previous month?

Dan Szymborski: It at all times is determined by the variety of PA *and* the magnitude

Dan Szymborski: Now, when you’re asking when in-season a change turns into *as* predictive because the projection

Dan Szymborski: for hitters, Okay/PA in 65 PA, 153 PA for HR, however 475 PA for singles per balls in play!

Snakey: How lengthy earlier than we will contemplate the Dbacks a legit contender to the Dbacks?

Dan Szymborski: They’re undoubtedly authentic contenders when taking part in themselves!

Vladdy: The place has my energy gone?

Dan Szymborski: Not nervous. Nonetheless hitting the ball within the air, nonetheless hitting the ball arduous

Dan Szymborski: You should see some Vlad on Hitters zStast tomorrow mornign

Who’s Fabio: Can I request a Boba Chette GIF viewing get together this week?  I believe final week you had been quick on time however Bo remains to be mashing the ball.

Dan Szymborski: I’m undecided what I’m imagined to do!

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: From earlier

Dan Szymborski:

cortezthakillah: Alejandro Kirk or Gary Sanchez ?

Dan Szymborski: Nonetheless Kirk!

Royals pit of despair: So which is worse: The A’s are shedding video games at an historic tempo, however are attempting to be dangerous. The Royals are additionally shedding video games at an historic tempo, however thought they’d be higher this 12 months. At the very least one workforce is seeing issues go in response to plan.

Dan Szymborski: See, when you’re going to be terrible, be AMAZING at it. The A’s are

Dan Szymborski: The A’s may lose 120 video games

Dan Szymborski: No one’s going to recollect most of those Royals

Dan Szymborski: And it’s too dangerous that Quatraro might be the sacrificial lamb that will get blamed by the org

SJ: The Rangers successfully acquired Heim, Garcia, and Lowe for 2 45ish prospects, Elvis Andrus, and money concerns. Looks like a reasonably whole lot.

Al Bundy: What workforce has been the worst underperformer relative to their ZiPS projected document, traditionally?  Are the 2023 Cardinals vulnerable to taking that crown?

Dan Szymborski: Oh, 2021 Giants

Dan Szymborski: oih wait

Dan Szymborski: different means round

Dan Szymborski: dangle on

Massive Jeff Pfeffer: Folks in Kansas Metropolis are so stockholm-syndromed to dangerous old-fashioned managers that some are saying they’d fairly have Matheny than Quatrato

Dan Szymborski: 2018 Orioles at -30, 2017 Giants at -24, 2005 Dodgers at -23, after which 5 groups at -21: 2019 Tigers, 2014 Rangers, 2012 Rockies, 2009 Mets, 2008 Padres

Effectively-Beered Englishman: Thanks all for the Baltimore suggestions! We went to Faidley’s for crab truffles straight off the airplane, hit up Attman’s Deli and the Mount Royal Tavern, and whacked a bunch of crabs with mallets. Didn’t get to strive a Chaps pit beef so I’m planning to return. Cool metropolis. Want the O’s had been on the town.

Dan Szymborski: Glad you had enjoyable

Dan Szymborski: JFC you guys have requested plenty of questions

Dan Szymborski: That is going to be one among my worst chats for reply charge

Dan Szymborski: I’m going to need to cease answering ones that I’ve to test information on!

Jerry: As an Astros fan how involved ought to I be that the Rangers are on the tempo they’re on?  Is it sustainable?  Ought to we be wanting on the Wild Card race already?

Dan Szymborski: Needs to be involved. We’re going to be on the midway level in a pair weeks

No title: What do you concentrate on the response characteristic in chat? I really feel prefer it negatively impacts the cell expertise

Dan Szymborski: Oh, I at all times depart it on as a result of I like to present you guys as a lot freedom as doable

Steve O: How actual is Jake Bauers? He’s bought one of the best batted ball information of his profession, however the pattern remains to be fairly small. The Yankees are going to want somebody to step up whereas Choose is out.

Dan Szymborski: Nonetheless skeptical

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Dan, you bought to maneuver. It will possibly’t be in the identical state the place you reside now, any state the place you lived beforehand, or any bordering state of the place you reside now or have lived.  The place do you progress?

Dan Szymborski: New Hampshire

Dan Szymborski: or Colorado

Chickie: Is that trio OF in Miami of Soler, DLC and Candy Jesus remotely harking back to the previous of Stanton, Ozuna and Yelich?

Dan Szymborski: Soler sort of odd man out long run

Dan Szymborski:

JK: Are you able to assist me perceive ninetieth percentile EV slightly higher and its significance?

Dan Szymborski: It’s like max EV however ninetieth percentile means you’re eliminating some outliers

Ugh: Are the Cubs actually this dangerous? Spending $300m to be simply as dangerous as final 12 months? And even “prospect” followers and cubs media inform me will likely be a man isn’t even bench worthy. The org seems like its in disarray. Whole dumpster hearth.

Dan Szymborski: They’re a 50ish workforce taking part in poorly now after taking part in very properly in April

Jason: Has this season affected your outlook on Corbin Carroll?

Dan Szymborski: No, I already thought he was usually

brooklyngail: My 14-year-old cat usually walks via the home carrying a sock in her mouth and meowing loudly. What does it imply?

Dan Szymborski: Doesn’t essentially imply something

Dan Szymborski: but when it’s a change in conduct, that’s a superb cause for checkup

TooDamnTall: Have badly have humidors tousled park components, on a scale of 1 to blueberries.

Dan Szymborski: bessemer course of

FroYo: I’m on a piece name that’s completely distracting me out of your chat…God assist me!

Ugh: Why are FOs nonetheless dangerous when there are analysts utilizing publicly obtainable information that would let you know why what a FO is doing will not be a good suggestion?

Dan Szymborski: Determination-making is advanced and getting information from a pc display to a plan of motion isn’t at all times straightforward

D: Ideas on the Hearthstone meta now that there’s been slightly time for the reason that mini-set?

Dan Szymborski: haven’t performed a lot constructed

Satan Ray Jay Johnson: agree it’s “puh-CON” besides it’s at all times “PEE-can” pie

Daniel L: Do you blame AJ Preller for the failure of the Padres? This isn’t the primary time he’s constructed a roster that has carried out properly beneath expectations? Or is it on the gamers?

Dan Szymborski: The factor was, the primary return in 2017/2018 vary shouldn’t have labored

Dan Szymborski: however this one works

Dan Szymborski: it’s arduous responsible him on this case for the gamers which have sucked

Dan Szymborski: Which additionally makes it actually frigging arduous to repair

Chip: I’m taking a look at ZIPS 24 and 25 projections on KeBrayan Hayes they usually’re…underwhelming. Why do you assume a man who purportedly has a 60 hit software is such a nasty hitter?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has at all times been skeptical about his offense

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Dan, are you able to simulate a photograph of a dugout-clearing brawl however with everybody working onto the sector in tutus and with feathers?

Appa Yip Yip: Is Kevin Gausman one of the best FA pitcher signing in baseball?

Dan Szymborski: Wanting prefer it

Joe Fan: Why do you hate my workforce?

Dan Szymborski: My job is to crush pleasure

Kyle: A baseball-sized radioactive meteor is headed to earth and can finish civilization if it hits the bottom in a single piece however is innocent if it’s damaged up earlier than affect. The meteor is 475 toes from house plate and hovering proper off the bottom. Which three hitters would you decide to hit a baseball to it?

Dan Szymborski: Choose, Soto, Alvarez

Appa Yip Yip: Why is the sandwich fanatic being imply to rowdy he’s only a massive fluffy boy who deserves the world

Eric: Do you assume Encarnacion Strand is price stashing even when he can’t be moved to minors slot and thus my workforce could be lacking at bats?

Dan Szymborski: Not a bench?

Dan Szymborski: I believe he’ll be up quickly

Dan Szymborski: when you’re behind int eh standings by so much, I’d take the chance due to the upside

Appa Yip Yip: The Jays can clearly afford each however when you had to decide on to lock up Vlad or Bo long run which might you decide?

Dan Szymborski: Boba Chette

Visitor: “Corbin Carroll is usually” – Dan Symborski

Dan Szymborski: For some cause, I typed superior as usually

Dan Szymborski: This type of factor has elevated within the final 5 or 6 years as I age

Visitor: After roughly what number of PAs do charge states like Chase%, Contact%, and many others. are inclined to stabilize?

Dan Szymborski: Fewer!

Dan Szymborski: Underneath 100

Chip: Actual males pronounce it ‘PUH-con’

Meow sock query: I didn’t see the phrase “cat” within the sock meow query and thought any person’s 14-year outdated child was doing that. Undoubtedly would have been a cause for a test up

Visitor: Should drop one among Freddy Peralta, Bibee, Paxton or Mitch Keller.  Who could be your alternative?

Dan Szymborski: Paxton, although I believe you may commerce him

Dan Szymborski: Let another person want him to remain wholesome!

FroYo: Are you going to do one other article about ZIPs breakouts from the Future’s Sport once more this 12 months?!?  Was actually useful final.  Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: I normally do, so I most likely will once more!

Visitor: In case you had been a betting man, do you assume Jacob deGrom comes again as an excellent pitcher after TJ surgical procedure? I do know the unknowns are enormous.

Dan Szymborski: I’m slightly squeamish for a TJ redux

Visitor: are gamers with much less expertise extra more likely to attain twentieth or eightieth percentile projected efficiency, or is the vary merely wider?

Dan Szymborski: Keep in mind, twentieth/eightieth percentiles are already the recognition!

Dan Szymborski: errr

Dan Szymborski: chance

Dan Szymborski: see what I imply? Szym approaching 45 substitutes far more unsuitable phrases than Szym approaching 25

Dan Szymborski: Which actually annoys me.

CFH: Dan, do you assume Ohtani may play the sector and simply make his throws left handed? That appears more easy to study than different issues he does efficiently

Dan Szymborski: That will be amusing

Steve O: Astros secret: Having one faux workforce of their division + Mariners/Angels.

Talking of socks: Is it dangerous {that a} maintain having a dream the place my Vlad Guerrero themed socks maintain coming to life and Vlad softly nibbles on my ankle?

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: On that be aware, it’s time for me to depart for one more week!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everybody!